There was an interesting piece by Peter Kellner in yesterday's Sunday Times in which the great sage drew various conclusions from pouring over YouGov's polling data in LAB-CON marginals. He analysed the data in the 115 LAB-CON marginals that would fall to the Tories on a swing of 8 per cent with a view to assessing the impact of the Lib Dem surge.
Before Clegg (BC), the Tories' were leading in these seats by, on average, 4 points – a swing from Labour to Conservative of 6.5 per cent. That compared to a national swing of 5 per cent, suggesting Lord Ashcroft's money was well spent. After the debate (AD), however, Labour are leading in these seats by, on average, 1 point – a swing from Labour to Conservative of 4 per cent, no different to the national swing as it stands at present. (To read more, click here.)
