Smart move on Nick Clegg's part to insist that the referendum on AV be held next May. He knows that the sooner it's held, the more pressure David Cameron will be under to campaign for a "Yes" vote. Why? Because if the outcome of the referendum is "No", the coalition probably won't survive and Cameron can't afford for it to collapse so soon.
Agreeing to hold a referendum on AV was the big concession the Conservative negotiating team made in order to secure the support of the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg and his Orange Book colleagues may have been willing to throw in their lot with the Tories willy nilly, but they wouldn't have been able to take their party with them without the promise of a referendum. And the reason it means so much to the Lib Dems is because they believe there's a real chance the public might vote "Yes". If those hopes are dashed, Clegg is going to have a devil of a job persuading his party to remain in the coalition, particularly as the Lib Dems' standing in the opinion polls has plummeted since May 6. (To read more, click here.)
