SEARCH:  
Twitter Facebook RSS Feed
No Sacred Cows  
Toby Young
Wednesday 4th September 2019

Corbyn, not Boris, was the real loser last night


The Remainers are celebrating after last tonight’s defeat of the government and writing Boris off as a busted flush. ‘Johnson’s Brexit strategy in ruins as anti-no deal MPs inflict defeat,’ says the headline on this morning’s FT. But I’m not convinced this was such a bad night for the Prime Minister.

Boris’s response to yesterday’s loss has been to table a motion calling for a general election. Corbyn’s position, as I understand it, is that he will only agree to an election after the ‘anti-no deal bill’ forcing Boris to ask for an extension of the Brexit deadline on 19 October has been approved by both Houses of Parliament. (Boris refers to it as ‘Jeremy Corbyn’s surrender bill’.) Assuming the bill isn’t ‘talked out’ in the Lords, and assuming Boris doesn’t advise the Queen to withhold her assent, that would effectively prevent Boris from setting an election date after 31 October. Until now, Downing Street has maintained that if the government was defeated by a vote of no confidence, the PM would not resign, but sit on his hands for the 14-day period stipulated in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, at which point a general election would automatically be triggered. He would then set the date of the election for after 31 October, so the UK would leave the European Union by default during the campaign.

If the extension bill becomes law, by contrast, Boris cannot pursue that strategy. Even if he set the date of the election after 31 October, he would still have to ask for an extension on 19 October in his capacity as caretaker Prime Minister and the election would take place before we’ve left.

So Corbyn’s reasoning is that if he makes his support of a general election conditional on the bill becoming law, Boris will have no choice but to set the date of the election before 31 October. Assuming it plays out as expected, an election will still take place, but in mid-October – 15 October is the likely date – rather than after we’ve left. It will effectively be a second referendum on Brexit. Provided the Conservatives win that contest, the passing of the extension bill won’t tie Boris’s hands because he can use his majority to repeal the new law before it compels him to ask for an extension on 19 October. He can go then go to the European Council meeting on 17 October and credibly threaten no deal if there’s still no renegotiation and take Britain out on 31 October whether he gets a new deal or not. (To read more, click here.)

COMMENT | COMMENTS SO FAR: 0 [ FIXED LINK ] Bookmark and Share






Your name:


Subject:


Comment:



Enter: 


Twitter How identity politics drove the world mad - Roger Scruton on ⁦@DouglasKMurray⁩’s excellent new book link  (31 minutes ago)

BEST OF THE WEB

Cambridge and the exclusion of Jordan Peterson by Nigel Biggar - thearticle.com
The shocking truth about Jordan Peterson by Wesley Yang - tabletmag.com
The intellectual dark web by Bari Weiss - nytimes.com
How identity politics is harming the sciences by Heather Mac Donald - city-journal.org
The fall of the German Empire by Ross Douthat - nytimes.com
How Tom Wolfe became Tom Wolfe by Michael Lewis - Vanity Fair
The neuro-diversity case for free speech by Geoffrey Miller - quillette.com
The Age of Outrage by Jonathan Haidt - city-journal.org
The Warlock Hunt by Claire Berlinski - the-american-interest.com
Is classical liberalism conservative? by Yarom Hazony - jerusalemletters.com
The Implosion of Western Liberalism by Patrick Lee Miller - quillette.com
The Eton of the East End - Daily Mail
The reactionary temptation by Andrew Sullivan - nymag.com
The book that scandalised New York intellectuals by Louis Menand - newyorker.com
To understand Britain today, look to the 17th Century by Adrian Wooldridge - economist.com
The crisis in France by Christopher Caldwell - city-journal.org
A Visit to Michaela School by Patrick Alexander - prospectmagazine.co.uk
Why parenting may not matter by Brian Boutwell - quillette.com
Trump Establishment's Cultural Significance Explained by Michael Wolff - newsweek.com
Branching histories of the 2016 referendum by Dominic Cummings - dominiccummings.wordpress.com
Putin's Real Long Game by Molly K McKew - politico.com
The Flight 93 Election by Publius Decius Mus - claremont.org
How the education gap is tearing politics apart by David Runciman - theguardian.com
What's wrong with identity politics by Graeme Archer - conservativehome.com
Grammars and the grain of truth by Jonathan Porter
Anti-Brexit: Britain's new class war by John O'Sullivan - nationalreview.com
The English Revolt by Robert Tombs - newstatesman.com
Democracies end when they are too democratic by Andrew Sullivan - nymag.com
Human beings really are making progress by Steven Pinker - edge.org
What ISIS really wants by Graeme Wood - theatlantic.com
A society ripe for Submission by Douglas Murray - quadrant.org.au
Why I'm a Conservative Teacher by Jonathan Porter - conservativeteachers.com
Corbyn's Inconvenient Truth – He wanted the IRA to win - youtu.be
Why I've become Tory scum by Tony Parsons - gq-magazine.co.uk
Inside Westminster's free school - telegraph.co.uk
Robert Conquest obit - telegraph.co.uk
Jeremy Corbyn is not an anti-Semite – it's so much worse than that - news.stv.tv
 

BLOGROLL

Andrew Lilico
Andrew Sullivan
Arts and Letters Daily
Bagehot's Notebook
BBC News
BBC Sport
Benedict Brogan
Brendan O'Neill
Bruce Anderson
Coffee House
Conservative Home
Damian McBride
Damian Thompson
Dan Hodges
Daniel Hannon
Ed West
Frank Furedi
Guido Fawkes
Harry Phibbs
Iain Dale
Iain Martin
James Delingpole
James Wolcott
Joe Murphy
John Rentoul
Labour List
Mark Steyn
Matt Drudge
Mehdi Hasan
Melanie Phillips
Michael Wolff
Nick Cohen
Nick Robinson
Nikki Finke
Normblog
Paul Waugh
Peter Hitchens
Political Betting
Right Minds
Rob Long
Rod Liddle
Slate
Sophy Ridge
Stephen Pollard
The Arts Desk
The Corner
The Daily Beast
The First Post
The Omnivore
The Onion
Tim Shipman
Tim Stanley
Tom Shone
 

COLUMNISTS

AA Gill
Aidan Hartley
Allison Pearson
Allister Heath
AO Scott
Boris Johnson
Charles Moore
Cosmo Landesman
Daniel Finkelstein
David Brooks
Fraser Nelson
George Monbiot
Giles Coren
Henry Winter
James Delingpole
Jan Moir
Janan Ganesh
Jeremy Clarkson
Jeremy Warner
Jim White
Jonathan Freedland
Lloyd Evans
Manohla Dargis
Martin Samuel
Mary Ann Sieghart
Matthew d'Ancona
Matthew Norman
Maureen Dowd
Michiko Kakutani
Owen Jones
Patrick O'Flynn
Paul Krugman
Peter Bradshaw
Peter Oborne
Philip Collins
Polly Toynbee
Quentin Letts
Rachel Johnson
Rod Liddle
Roy Greenslade
Tim Montgomerie
Trevor Kavanagh
 
UK Book Cover

  • Buy the book on Amazon.co.uk

  • Buy the book on Amazon.com


  • UK Book Cover

  • Buy the book on Amazon.co.uk

  • Buy the book on Amazon.com


  • Audio Book Cover

  • Buy the audio book from
    Whole Story Audio
  • DVD Cover

  • Buy the DVD from Amazon.co.uk

  • Buy the DVD from Amazon.com


  • IMdb Page on the film